Calculating a crisis
A Bloomberg View article, "Russia's Inside Traders Know Putin's Plans" (Feb. 25, 2015), reported on new research by Johnson PhD candidates Felipe Silva and Ekaterina Volkova. They used a model developed by Professor Maureen O'Hara and co-author David Easley, also of Cornell, to show that insiders anticipated Russia's annexation of Crimea, and executed trades accordingly. When the index generated by the researchers' Volume- Synchronized Probability of Informed Trading model rises sharply, it suggests that trades are being made by informed participants, and that a momentous event is likely coming. O'Hara and Easley used the model to predict the Flash Crash of 2010 two hours before it took place.